Grendel Steelcase Ammo Update

[TOU]

East german ammo was pretty good but I also LOVED my SA 7.62x51 ammo. I also loved the sealed rubberized battle-pack packaging. Sadly, I sold my last 1,500 rounds when I completely sold out of everything x51 (M1A, Saiga's) when I became fully converted on 6.5G/AR-15 combo for auto platforms. I just didn't want to maintain the bigger bore platforms anymore which I guess worked out as I don't have anything to feed it to anymore.

Oh..and I agree that the 6.5G has been adopted enough in bolt & SA rifles (AR pistols) & the performance gains on the AR platform that the vacuum will be filled sooner than later. Likely with a more quality option?

[4everNewB]

I read that thread and the PSA rep that posted on it did say 6.5 grendel is included in their up coming steel cased ammo line.

Can you provide a link? The thread I read said they were NOT considering grendel "at this time".

Thanks!

[Morvandium]

Initially I thought that this wouldn't affect me much because I only buy US made ammo (moral and ethical reasons), and I prefer brass cased for my nicer barrels, which currently my only Grendel setup is.

But then something else occurred to me.

The military is in the midst of migrating to a next generation platform for its small arms, and their carbines/rifles are going to be in 6.8mm caliber. There's going to be transition both away from 5.56 for some manufacturers, as the demand for 5.56 decreases as the military stops buying it. (Yes, there's a huge civilian market.) It will become a question, for manufacturers, of how they can make the most money. There's not much driving domestic production of 6.5mm ammo currently except the civilian market.

Whenever cheap ammo imports finally stop, it'll do two things. First, with cheap ammo having fewer suppliers, economy priced ammo may get more expensive in the short term. After time, demand could provide impetus for increased domestic production of low cost ammo to fill that void.

However, if manufacturers that might consider moving into the supply of 6.5mm economy priced ammo see more profit in producing the new military round, it could mean that the 6.5 ammo isn't picked up by as many manufacturers. So, for fans of cheap Grendel ammo, it might be better in the long run if that foreign ammo supply dried up sooner, so that niche in the market for cheap 6.5mm ammo has a chance to be filled domestically, before the 6.8mm production is just so much more profitable that it becomes bad business to not produce the new mil spec ammo.

That said, I've read some interesting things about the next-gen ammo with possible polymer cases and/or combined steel/brass cases. I'll be curious to see how that pans out. Maybe it takes the military a couple tries to get their ammo right, and manufacturers shy away from the new ammo in the beginning. We'll see.

Just some thoughts.

[m796rider]

Initially I thought that this wouldn't affect me much because I only buy US made ammo (moral and ethical reasons), and I prefer brass cased for my nicer barrels, which currently my only Grendel setup is.

But then something else occurred to me.

The military is in the midst of migrating to a next generation platform for its small arms, and their carbines/rifles are going to be in 6.8mm caliber. There's going to be transition both away from 5.56 for some manufacturers, as the demand for 5.56 decreases as the military stops buying it. (Yes, there's a huge civilian market.) It will become a question, for manufacturers, of how they can make the most money. There's not much driving domestic production of 6.5mm ammo currently except the civilian market.

Whenever cheap ammo imports finally stop, it'll do two things. First, with cheap ammo having fewer suppliers, economy priced ammo may get more expensive in the short term. After time, demand could provide impetus for increased domestic production of low cost ammo to fill that void.

However, if manufacturers that might consider moving into the supply of 6.5mm economy priced ammo see more profit in producing the new military round, it could mean that the 6.5 ammo isn't picked up by as many manufacturers. So, for fans of cheap Grendel ammo, it might be better in the long run if that foreign ammo supply dried up sooner, so that niche in the market for cheap 6.5mm ammo has a chance to be filled domestically, before the 6.8mm production is just so much more profitable that it becomes bad business to not produce the new mil spec ammo.

That said, I've read some interesting things about the next-gen ammo with possible polymer cases and/or combined steel/brass cases. I'll be curious to see how that pans out. Maybe it takes the military a couple tries to get their ammo right, and manufacturers shy away from the new ammo in the beginning. We'll see.

Just some thoughts.

If we're talking about the current ammo offerings for the military 6.8 program, one requires a case with a steel head bonded to a brass body, and one requires polymer cases. I think both versions are angling for SAAMI adoption (not 100% sure, actually) since both are being offered on the civilian market. So, if someone wanted to make standard brass or steel cased ammo for this caliber, they'd either have to produce ammo that is non-SAAMI or get yet another SAAMI spec published for standard-cased ammo.

I think it'll be a long time before we see anything approaching cheap ammo for .277 SIG Fury or whatever else the civilian ammo is called.

[lazyengineer]

I wouldn't advise making plans or investments based around the US military abandoning 5.56 for a different round. Good luck finding a cartridge with the controllable full auto recoil impulse and small diameter allowing manageable sized 30 round magazines. The 6.8 caseless bullpup supressor unit under development is a science fair project

[LRRPF52]

At least 2 of the NGSW cartridge submissions have already been SAAMI-certified, which is highly-unusual for a military new cartridge technology program.

The .277 SIG FURY SAAMI MAP is 80,000psi, using a hybrid steel case head and brass body cartridge.

The 6.8 TVCM MAP is 65,000psi (typical magnum pressure limit), using a steel case head and polymer body.

The program milestones keep getting pushed back, delayed, and don’t meet any of the deadlines they have published.

The Integrated Optic has already been awarded to Vortex, which is a huge contract.

Money has been allocated to Winchester to tool-up for production of a new type of ammo.

FY2021 was supposed to be contract award for the NGSW rifles and machine-gun, which didn’t happen.

FY2022 was supposed to be first units equipped. Now they’re saying Fall 2022 will be an announcement on weapon selection.

The big problem is barrel life on any of them.


Assuming that hybrid ammunition with steel heads and brass or polymer bodies become more widespread in the civilian market in order to handle more working pressure, the current metallic cartridge technology might become like the older black powder metallic cartridges did at the turn of the century going from 1800s into the 1900s, when smokeless powder was introduced. This is primarily in context of military use.

The main driving performance requirement stated in NGSW is hard armor defeat at 600m.

If the technology is applied to smaller civilian cartridges, then we will see performance gains or reach long barrel Weatherby Magnum speeds from shorter barrels like NGSW aimed to do.

I’m not sure the throat/barrel life problem has been solved though.

There are late 1800s cartridges whose performance is still relevant today, rivaling a lot of what is “new” on the market, even ones that started life as black powder rimmed cartridges.

6mm Lee Navy (smokeless, semi-rimmed)
6.5x55 Mauser (smokeless, rimless)
.30-30 Winchester (black powder, rimmed)
.30-40 Krag (black powder, rimmed)
.45-70 Government (black powder, rimmed)

[Fess]

SAAMI recently approved both the SIG 277 Fury (at 80,000 psi) and the polymer 6.8 True Velocity Composite (at 65,000 psi) rounds. If one or the other is accepted by the US military, it won't necessarily mean that cheap surplus ammo will be available. The bullets are being optimized for barrier and armor penetration and will likely be more expensive than normal lead-cored ones. It is possible that the Army will develop a less expensive training round, but that is not assured. Also, the 277 Fury is comparable to 270 WSM in power and will be unpleasant to shoot in high volumes.
I don't see 5.56 going away. From what I understand, the current plan is to keep 5.56 and only equip the front line "close combat force" with the new wonder-cartridge. Besides, 5.56 already has a massive user base and uses a significantly lower amount of raw materials.

[lazyengineer]

Wow. 80,000 PSI. Bet that burns pretty clean! That has got to be some kind of Stellite (Cobalt) chamber and throat . For what? - how many 5.56 impacts are there that well-damn, we would have won if we had heavier?. Vs How many fights will be Well-damn, all my shots went up into the air and I kept running put of ammo, and my gun tracked onto target slower? We had this conversation - it was the M14. America's shortest service life general issue rifle of all time.

All of which is order of magnitude level system cost increase, for a gun that will be about as easy to control on full-auto as an M14, amd who's Magazine has to look like something off a British BREN.

Awesome for special people on a special purpose, but nuts for a base troop of the line.

Point being agreement, that 5.56 isn't going anywhere.

[Morvandium]

I don't think the 5.56 is going anywhere either. I clearly overstated the effects to the 5.56 market, and I chose my words sloppily there. It seems to have distracted from my primary point, which applies even if there isn't a major drop in 5.56 ammo production. My bad.

Once the new military standard is chosen, any manufacturer selecting a new ammo line to start producing would have more incentive to choose the new 6.8mm over 6.5 Grendel ammo. The further into military adoption, the more incentive for manufacturers to choose the new military standard, or a civilian variation of the cartridge. Once soldiers start using the new weapons system and like it (presuming it isn't absolute crap), some of them will want a civilian version at home. Then they'll sing its praises to their friends, some of whom will want one. And then random civies who like to play soldier will follow. And criminals will start getting their hands on them in larger numbers -- cartels and larger organized crime at first. And police departments will want them and get them at some point, rationalizing the criminals have access to these weapons and they don't want to be outgunned. (How often do you hear a police or sheriffs department turn down military grade hardware?) And eventually there'll be arguments in forums about... well, I think we all know a bunch of those arguments! Unless the weapon and cartridge absolutely suck, this will happen, albeit over many years.

A broad market will naturally grow out of military acceptance over time. Whatever the new platform is, it and its ammo are going to start gaining popularity that will be unlikely to shrink in the future.

If a manufacturer were choosing a new bulk ammo line to produce right now, there's a civilian Grendel market to tap (and the world's 64th largest military), but no market for the new military standard yet. Once an import ban goes into effect, there will be a shrinking cheap ammo supply, creating an opening for domestic manufacturers. Those factors together currently make Grendel a relatively good choice (compared to the new military standard). But, once the military standard is chosen, that becomes the smart choice because of larger market and greater chance for growth.

Yeah, I wouldn't make any investment decisions around this. But I do hazard the guess that the import ban going into place sooner, rather than later, has a greater chance of being a long-term boon to the Grendel community in terms of ammo costs. Long term being the key.

[myrifle]

Can you provide a link? The thread I read said they were NOT considering grendel "at this time".

Thanks!

Yea.

Google grendel steel case and ar15.com

[biodsl]

There are late 1800s cartridges whose performance is still relevant today, rivaling a lot of what is “new” on the market..(SNIP)..6.5x55 Mauser...

To illustrate the point, 9 Hole Reviews just put a video up a few days ago about the Swedish M96 chambered in 6.5x55. Henry shoots an amazing course of fire with this 122 year old rifle. Apparently the nickname for the Creedmoor in Sweden is the 6.5 Costmore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StQ_AcgCnag

[BluntForceTrauma]

We had this conversation - it was the M14.

Sums it up.

There's one school of thought that says gun buyers will flock to any new military cartridge. It's a fair point; look how they flocked to 6.8 SPC, at first, when all the hype was that it was fer shur gonna be the next U.S. Army service cartridge.

However, if the imprimatur of military use was the be-all, end-all, then 6.5 Creedmoor wouldn't be the number one selling cartridge, superceding .308 Winchester in 14 years.

After shooting a short-barreled, .308-based cartridge at 80,000 psi, I think a few guys will be asking themselves, do I really need this kind of magnum recoil to do what I need to do?

If I had to predict, I predict 6.8 NGSW will be adopted simply because of bureaucratic inertia, but then when they realize that mistake it will be shunted to the side as a special-purpose round because of it's uncontrollability and requirement for special barrels, and weapon and logistical bulk. They'll save face by using it to replace 7.62 NATO, and then the same technology will be used in yet another search for a more compact assault weapon round.

Which won't necessarily be a bad thing, but it'll be "I tolja so!"

[Phalanx]

Maybe we'll get to see Prvi Partizan 6.5 grendel more then?

[4everNewB]

Yea.

Google grendel steel case and ar15.com

I've read all relevant articles on that forum, and again, the only time I see grendel mentioned is when a PSA rep says they do not have current plans to include grendel in their steel case offerings.

https://www.ar15.com/forums/ak-47/PSA-qu.../#i1440574

Please consider editing your post if you can't provide a source for your claim, although I would absolutely love to be proven wrong here.