Grendel Steelcase Ammo Update

[Morvandium]

I don't think the 5.56 is going anywhere either. I clearly overstated the effects to the 5.56 market, and I chose my words sloppily there. It seems to have distracted from my primary point, which applies even if there isn't a major drop in 5.56 ammo production. My bad.

Once the new military standard is chosen, any manufacturer selecting a new ammo line to start producing would have more incentive to choose the new 6.8mm over 6.5 Grendel ammo. The further into military adoption, the more incentive for manufacturers to choose the new military standard, or a civilian variation of the cartridge. Once soldiers start using the new weapons system and like it (presuming it isn't absolute crap), some of them will want a civilian version at home. Then they'll sing its praises to their friends, some of whom will want one. And then random civies who like to play soldier will follow. And criminals will start getting their hands on them in larger numbers -- cartels and larger organized crime at first. And police departments will want them and get them at some point, rationalizing the criminals have access to these weapons and they don't want to be outgunned. (How often do you hear a police or sheriffs department turn down military grade hardware?) And eventually there'll be arguments in forums about... well, I think we all know a bunch of those arguments! Unless the weapon and cartridge absolutely suck, this will happen, albeit over many years.

A broad market will naturally grow out of military acceptance over time. Whatever the new platform is, it and its ammo are going to start gaining popularity that will be unlikely to shrink in the future.

If a manufacturer were choosing a new bulk ammo line to produce right now, there's a civilian Grendel market to tap (and the world's 64th largest military), but no market for the new military standard yet. Once an import ban goes into effect, there will be a shrinking cheap ammo supply, creating an opening for domestic manufacturers. Those factors together currently make Grendel a relatively good choice (compared to the new military standard). But, once the military standard is chosen, that becomes the smart choice because of larger market and greater chance for growth.

Yeah, I wouldn't make any investment decisions around this. But I do hazard the guess that the import ban going into place sooner, rather than later, has a greater chance of being a long-term boon to the Grendel community in terms of ammo costs. Long term being the key.