65G and Future Urban Warfare

[stanc]

Lifespan will not effect population size over the long term. Population growth over the long term is determined only by the ratio of births(and immigration if dealing with a nation/geographic area) to deaths (and emigration).

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With a birth rate of zero there can never be population growth (if you have 7 rifles and never buy/make/acquire more, 7 is the most you will ever have, no matter how long they last), only a possible slowing of population decrease (due to the decrease of deaths attached to the increase in lifespan) for the number of years that the life span increased. In this case 20 years. Death rate will never be zero, so with a zero birth rate the population will always decline. After this period of time, it will level out and lifespan will again be irrelevant.

Good analysis. Well said.

I believe the point of the paragraph was that a decrease in birth rate combined with an increase in lifespan is leading to an aging population requiring more care and automation. This also means fewer people of fighting age.

No doubt an increase in lifespan will result in a greater number of the elderly who need care. But, I fail to see any reason why that would have significant impact on combat in megacities.

Or, since old people don't reproduce, why living longer would result in fewer people of fighting age. It seems to me that, as long as women of childbearing age continue to give birth, there will always be an adequate supply of people of fighting age.