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Stopping power by Caliber - bwaites - 06-05-2011
This article is a must read.
I'm placing it here because it really is a Technical Knowledge kind of post, even if it isn't directly related to the Grendel. Most of us shoot/carry a sidearm, and these results are very interesting.
Greg gave me permission to post the entire thing, so here goes:
[SIZE="6"]An Alternate Look at Handgun Stopping Power[/SIZE]
[SIZE="5"]Greg Ellifritz[/SIZE]
I’ve been interested in firearm stopping power for a very long time. I remember reading Handguns magazine back in the late 1980s when Evan Marshall was writing articles about his stopping power studies. When Marshall’s first book came out in 1992, I ordered it immediately, despite the fact that I was a college student and really couldn’t afford its $39 price tag. Over the years I bought all of the rest of Marshall’s books as well as anything else I could find on the subject. I even have a first edition of Gunshot Injuries by Louis Lagarde published in 1915.
Every source I read has different recommendations. Some say Marshall’s data is genius. Some say it is statistically impossible. Some like big heavy bullets. Some like lighter, faster bullets. There isn’t any consensus. The more I read, the more confused I get.
One thing I remember reading that made a lot of sense to me was an article by Massad Ayoob. He came out with his own stopping power data around the time Marshall published Handgun Stopping Power. In the article, Ayoob took his critics to task. He suggested that if people didn’t believe his data, they should collect their own and do their own analysis. That made sense to me. So that’s just what I did. I always had a slight problem with the methodology of Marshall and Sanow's work. For consistency purposes, they ONLY included hits to the torso and ONLY included cases where the person was hit with just a single round. Multiple hits screwed up their data, so they excluded them. This lead to an unrealistically high stopping power percentage, because it factored out many of the cases where a person didn't stop! I wanted to look at hits anywhere on the body and get a realistic idea of actual stopping power, no matter how many hits it took to get it. So I started collecting data.
Over a 10-year period, I kept track of stopping power results from every shooting I could find. I talked to the participants of gunfights, read police reports, attended autopsies, and scoured the newspapers, magazines, and Internet for any reliable accounts of what happened to the human body when it was shot.
I documented all of the data I could; tracking caliber, type of bullet (if known), where the bullet hit and whether or not the person was incapacitated. I also tracked fatalities, noting which bullets were more likely to kill and which were not. It was an exhaustive project, but I’m glad I did it and I’m happy to report the results of my study here.
Before I get to the details, I must give a warning. I don’t have any dog in this fight! I don’t sell ammo. I’m not being paid by any firearm or ammunition manufacturer. I carry a lot of different pistols for self defense. Within the last 2 weeks, I’ve carried a .22 magnum, a .380 auto, a .38 spl revolver, 3 different 9mm autos and a .45 auto. I don’t have an axe to grind. If you are happy with your 9mm, I’m happy for you. If you think that everyone should be carrying a .45 (because they don’t make a .46), I’m cool with that too. I 'm just reporting the data. If you don’t like it, take Mr. Ayoob’s advice….do a study of your own.
A few notes on terminology…
Since it was my study, I got to determine the variables and their definitions. Here’s what I looked at:
- Number of people shot
- Number of rounds that hit
- On average, how many rounds did it take for the person to stop his violent action or be incapacitated? For this number, I included hits anywhere on the body. To be considered an immediate incapacitation, I used criteria similar to Marshall's. If the attacker was striking or shooting the victim, the round needed to immediately stop the attack without another blow being thrown or shot being fired. If the person shot was in the act of running (either towards or away from the shooter), he must have fallen to the ground within five feet.
I also excluded all cases of accidental shootings or suicides. Every shot in this study took place during a military battle or an altercation with a criminal.
- What percentage of shooting incidents resulted in fatalities. For this, I included only hits to the head or torso.
- What percentage of people were not incapacitated no matter how many rounds hit them
- Accuracy. What percentage of hits was in the head or torso. I tracked this to check if variations could affect stopping power. For example, if one caliber had a huge percentage of shootings resulting in arm hits, we may expect that the stopping power of that round wouldn’t look as good as a caliber where the majority of rounds hit the head.
- One shot stop percentage- number of incapacitations divided by the number of hits the person took. Like Marshall’s number, I only included hits to the torso or head in this number.
- Percentage of people who were immediately stopped with one hit to the head or torso
Here are the results.
.25ACP-
# of people shot- 68
# of hits- 150
% of hits that were fatal- 25%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.2
% of people who were not incapacitated- 35%
One-shot-stop %- 30%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 62%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 49%
.22 (short, long and long rifle)
# of people shot- 154
# of hits- 213
% of hits that were fatal- 34%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.38
% of people who were not incapacitated- 31%
One-shot-stop %- 31%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 60%
.32 (both .32 Long and .32 ACP)
# of people shot- 25
# of hits- 38
% of hits that were fatal- 21%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.52
% of people who were not incapacitated- 40%
One-shot-stop %- 40%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 78%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 72%
.380 ACP
# of people shot- 85
# of hits- 150
% of hits that were fatal- 29%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.76
% of people who were not incapacitated- 16%
One-shot-stop %- 44%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 62%
.38 Special
# of people shot- 199
# of hits- 373
% of hits that were fatal- 29%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.87
% of people who were not incapacitated- 17%
One-shot-stop %- 39%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 55%
9mm Luger
# of people shot- 456
# of hits- 1121
% of hits that were fatal- 24%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.45
% of people who were not incapacitated- 13%
One-shot-stop %- 34%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 74%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 47%
.357 (both magnum and Sig)
# of people shot- 105
# of hits- 179
% of hits that were fatal- 34%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.7
% of people who were not incapacitated- 9%
One-shot-stop %- 44%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 81%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 61%
.40 S&W
# of people shot- 188
# of hits- 443
% of hits that were fatal- 25%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.36
% of people who were not incapacitated- 13%
One-shot-stop %- 45%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 52%
.45 ACP
# of people shot- 209
# of hits- 436
% of hits that were fatal- 29%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.08
% of people who were not incapacitated- 14%
One-shot-stop %- 39%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 85%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 51%
.44 Magnum
# of people shot- 24
# of hits- 41
% of hits that were fatal- 26%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.71
% of people who were not incapacitated- 13%
One-shot-stop %- 59%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 88%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 53%
Rifle (all Centerfire)
# of people shot- 126
# of hits- 176
% of hits that were fatal- 68%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.4
% of people who were not incapacitated- 9%
One-shot-stop %- 58%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 81%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 80%
Shotgun (All, but 90% of results were 12 gauge)
# of people shot- 146
# of hits- 178
% of hits that were fatal- 65%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.22
% of people who were not incapacitated- 12%
One-shot-stop %- 58%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 84%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 86%
See remainder and discussion in second post.
Stopping power by Caliber - Bob Duncan - 06-05-2011
I have taken courses at TDI and Greg is a real pro. You can probably contact him via the TDI website, link below. Greg is the guy front and center with the big grin.
http://www.tdiohio.com/contact.htm
Stopping power by Caliber - Longshot_34 - 06-05-2011
Excellent read! Interesting results.
I'd be willing to say that money is better spent on training than on the latest wonder bullet.
Stopping power by Caliber - LRRPF52 - 09-14-2011
Here's a great article by Rob Pincus. I wish more trainers and writers would do the same thing: Be forthcoming with things they now realize or feel they are wrong about, after learning and evolving.
http://www.imakenews.com/valhalla/e_article002168437.cfm?x=bk1b43S%2cb5STCPqd
I have come to the exact same conclusion for my carry gun, and wish I had not purchased a S&W M&P in .40, but in 9mm instead. I'm not sure a barrel conversion will work for me, but I'm considering it.
Stopping power by Caliber - coastguardchas - 09-15-2011
As a small arms instructor in the USCG I trained a lot of folks to fire and hit accurately with both .45 and 9mm, shotgun and M16, but saw no results of any acual shootings. During my full time job, I was onscene of many shootings, mainly 9mm, probaly hardball, and with people shot several times and surviving. The ones who didn't survive were hit with a larger caliber or a .22 lr. I shot a pig with a Glock M27 .40 SW, 135gr hp @ 40 yds with devastating results. A .45 acp 230gr hp provided the same results at about the same distance. My opinion, use the 9mm as last choice for a carry gun.. Chas
Stopping power by Caliber - LRRPF52 - 09-15-2011
There are a lot of folks who carry 9mm's as plainclothes carry guns, as well as their secondary sidearms for CQB who would disagree. Most street thugs are not such great shooters, so their marksmanship skills and the results therefrom are not to be viewed as cases for or against a particular caliber or tool.
I used to be a "full-size 1911 .45 ACP gold standard for carry gun" guy, but not anymore. I used to consider it blasphemy to suggest that a 9mm is a worthy fight-stopping caliber. The reality is that I can fire more 9mm's into someone, or transition from one target to another with faster recovery than I can with .40 S&W or .45 ACP.
With the same type of projectile design, you would be hard-pressed to find a difference between wounds from a 9mm and .40 S&W. Another thing I hate about having to shoot in a plainclothes environment is hearing loss, and I can tell you that .45 ACP will jack your ears up badly. 9mm isn't as bad outdoors, and you can get more shots on-target within a tighter shot placement spread than you will with .45 ACP and .40 S&W.
I know from my training and threat-based needs that I most likely will not fire only one round if someone is going to justify potential deadly force by their actions towards me or my family. They will become a bullet magnet, meaning at least 5 shots to their center of center 1/3rd vital zone as it presents to me, with detailed head shot for quick failure drill. It takes almost daily high-volume range sessions with a .40 S&W or .45 ACP to achieve the same rapid shot placement as it would for a weekly or even monthly training regimen with 9mm for me, plus the 9mm provides more capacity at less weight.
Several real-world studies on bullet performance comparing 9mm, .40 S&W, and .45 ACP using the same projectile types (Winchester SXT's, Speer Gold Dots, Corbons) actually favored the 9mm, with the .40 S&W a hair behind it, and the 230gr .45 ACP's falling much further than the smaller calibers. Other unpublished real-world results from certain communities caused them to push .45 ACP out from the primary caliber for their Offensive Handguns, and they are often cited as the reason why you need a .45 ACP.
A well-trained shooter will get the job done with any of the 3 main calibers, but it takes more money, range time, and shot recovery to get it done with .40 & .45 ACP. 9mm's have been killing people for a long time. Stopping Power is best defined as the will of someone to win the fight for their life more than the other(s), not a particular tool that they use. I would like to stack the deck in my favor with ammo capacity and shot recovery, not bullet diameter, especially since I carry the same or similar performance ammunition.
Stopping power by Caliber - Mutt - 09-16-2011
More mass delivers more energy into the target. I used to carry .45 hydroshocks religiously because it delivers more energy than a smaller bullet. Plus, permanent wound cavity bleeds them out quicker. A larger bullet is going to leave a larger wound cavity. The person who bleeds out first looses .... LOL. I'm not against 9mm hollowpoints. But, when using ball ammo as we did in the military, the 9mm failed miserably. Sure, they killed but there were many more walking wounded from the 9mm than they got back in the days with the old 1911's. Of course much of this was do to the 9mm ball. I still prefer the .45 over 9mm or .40 because it's less likely to over penetrate. The simple fact remains though, that shot placement is everything. I've been known to carry a small .22 auto when all I'm wearing is a t-shirt becasue it's small enough for a pocket gun. Even a .22 with good shot placement is going to do more for survival than no gun at all.
Stopping power by Caliber - LRRPF52 - 09-17-2011
The .45 ACP's biggest problem is its mass...it tends to not perform in many hollow point loads, since the mass maintains bullet shape as it slowly flies through soft tissue mediums after filling with clothing, and also deflects off lighter bone than most would think.
There are two primary schools of thought on bullet performance related to stopping a human threat:
1) Exsanguination
2) CNS Severence
I don't adhere to either as the route by which to approach stopping a lethal human attacker, since exsaunguination doesn't bleed people out fast enough to keep them from being able to still inflict injury or death on you (recall Miami 1986 & Platt), and 1st-round CNS shots are more for precision rifle marksmen. I do know of actual scenarios that were exceptions to the "head shot first" with a pistol, but they are rare.
The school of thought I personally subscribe to currently is explosive precision violence to psychologically and physically stop dead a lethal attacker. Basically think of something more along the lines of a very quick Bill Drill with a head shot follow-up in reserve if necessary, in a closing engagement, with trapping range contact shooting and hand-to-hand as the next stages in a worst-case.
Out of the numerous people I pester about such things, one particular scenario sticks out to me: I interviewed a shooting survivor last year at SHOT who was a cop in Florida. He had chased down this 18-year-old kid who had just shop-lifted some petty merchandise at the mall. Upon reaching him after jumping over several fences, he grabbed the kids sweater, from which a fist fight ensued. The officer flew back into a landscaping pool at a self-storage property they were on, and began spitting out his lower row of teeth. "Damn that kid hit me HARD!" was what was going through his head in that moment. The kid stood over him with a Glock 21 .45 ACP, which he had just used to shoot the officer in the face. The kid then placed three more shots into the officer's chest and turned to get away. The officer was wearing his armor...
The officer propped himself up on his right hand, drew his Glock 22 .40 S&W and proceeded to fire into the kid with a single hand position, at which point the kid turned and re-engaged the officer. The fight ended with the kid on top of the officer and the officer made the final shot, which was a contact shot to the skull, ending the fight. They both had run to slide lock...
The fight started with a .45 ACP to the head and ended with a .40 to the head. A total of 27 rounds had been expended. What I would hope for those evaluating their personal protection posture is to understand the psychological aspect of the will to survive a competition for life, the different training techniques and procedures that could be involved, and lastly, the tool selection considerations, particularly, magazine capacity.
Stopping power by Caliber - hm2 clark - 09-19-2011
Wearing a sweater in Flordia should have ben a tip off that somthing was out of kilter.
Stopping power by Caliber - JASmith - 09-19-2011
hm2 clark Wrote:Wearing a sweater in Flordia should have ben a tip off that somthing was out of kilter.I didn't catch the time of year or where in Florida it happened.
It got down to 8 degrees F on the last Christmas we spent in Florida. Fort Walton Beach surprises a lot of folks with how cold it can get in Florida!
Of course there's practically no mountains between there and the north pole, so the cold air masses can flow down...
Stopping power by Caliber - LRRPF52 - 09-19-2011
The cop was a SWAT guy who was working extra hours doing mall security on weekends. The kid's mom worked at a bank, and his dad was a retired cop. He just made a series of really bad choices wanting to be cool, shoplifting from the mall with his "friend" while carrying a stolen Glock 21, that was about as old as him. The officer had a large scar on his left jaw line where the .45 ACP rode along the inferior edge of his mandible. He said that from the first shot, not more than 10 seconds had transpired. That's a lot of shooting in a short amount of time.
This incident makes me wonder every time I top off a 15 or 12 round mag..."Will this be enough?" I've actually been looking at different higher capacity options, but none are packaged for concealed carry well. The never-ending saga for a good blaster, holster, carry position, & training ideas continues...as it should.
Found an article about it:
http://news.jacksonville.com/justin/2008/01/26/police-officer-shot/
Stopping power by Caliber - RangerRick - 09-19-2011
JASmith Wrote:Fort Walton Beach surprises a lot of folks with how cold it can get in Florida!.
I can testify to that! I about froze my nads off in the swamps in Ranger School near FWB. More Ranger students have died from hypothermia in Florida than from any other cause.
RR
Stopping power by Caliber - warped - 09-19-2011
Yeah cold and wet is a bitch, the waters off Ft. Ord and Coronado are a real treat.
Northern Europe in the fall kills, especially when above 3k feet.
Professional soldiers die in the Beacons all the time, Pen Y Fan is not a place to wait until you are cold to get in your bivvy sack.
Stopping power by Caliber - LRRPF52 - 09-19-2011
On the discussion of clothing and weather, heavier clothing on an attacker presents a different set of problems for handgun projectiles, especially hollow-points. Mossad Ayoob also used to be a big proponent of .45 ACP as a carry caliber, but has gone to recommending 9mm most of the year, but personally recommends and carries .45 ACP for the winter due to the extra mass having the ability to continue through thick layers of clothing, especially leather. It seems a little contradictory to me, since 9mm is often cited as an over-penetrator.
Stopping power by Caliber - Mutt - 09-26-2011
Your story about the cop in the shooting pretty much makes the case for shot placement. A shot to the head isn't worth much if all you shoot through is cheeck, lips and gums. Once you hit brain matter (cerebral cortex even better) the fight is over regardless of caliber.
I would never presume to armchair quarterback a cop that's been in a shooting. But, your story is also another example of how shooting less but more well aimed shots is better than shooting many poorly aimed shots.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not bashing the cop here.
I'd prefer to use anything over 9mm for better performance. More catastrophic damage than the smaller rounds and better permanent wound cavity regardless of expansion. But, that's my own personal preference. Do I carry smaller calibers .... of course. Like I said any gun is better than none.
Stopping power by Caliber - LRRPF52 - 09-26-2011
For having just been shot in the face, I think he did a mighty fine job of making all his hits on the perpetrator, especially one-handed from an awkward position that I've never seen simulated in competition or formal high-volume shoot courses. I think that since he was a SWAT guy, he had a lot more trigger time than your average officer, and I'll be the first to say that I would not want to be near the area where police are using firearms to respond to a lethal threat. He was using whatever hollow point duty load they had, which was one of the main ones in .40 S&W that I see in LE circles-maybe the Ranger SXT's...
Either way, the kid was very well built and didn't want to die. The cop said that very little time transpired during the exchange...only seconds, and he kept shooting until the threat was eliminated. After posting that story earlier, I was researching into ways that I might reduce the snap of the recoil in my M&P, and started to consider a .357 SIG drop-in pipe with a Sprinco recoil reducer, and get a bunch of Starline brass, .357 projectiles, and dies. I still like the capacity of a 9mm, especially with 17rds, and carrying +P+ SXT's or other good bullets will provide better penetration than a standard load. I just learn to hate .40 S&W the more I shoot it, and I've owned several different pistols in the caliber. Even my all-steel Para P-16 set-up for competition was jumpier than a full-power .45 ACP out of my P-14. Most guys in comps are using hand-loaded and tuned recipes for low recoil and power factor, or to make a muzzle device work for them, but I've never really bought into that because all my pistol training is geared towards realistic scenarios with carry ammunition, not punching paper.
If I could get an M&P chambered in 7.62x25, I would use that. That caliber smokes right through everything I've shot with it, and has very mild handling characteristics. We've also discussed the 6.5x25 CBJ here, which is basically rifle velocity out of a necked-down 9mm, with sabots and different projectile types for everything from armor-piercing to frangible.
Stopping power by Caliber - RangerRick - 09-27-2011
Mutt Wrote:Your story about the cop in the shooting pretty much makes the case for shot placement. A shot to the head isn't worth much if all you shoot through is cheeck, lips and gums. Once you hit brain matter (cerebral cortex even better) the fight is over regardless of caliber.
I would never presume to armchair quarterback a cop that's been in a shooting. But, your story is also another example of how shooting less but more well aimed shots is better than shooting many poorly aimed shots.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not bashing the cop here.
I'd prefer to use anything over 9mm for better performance. More catastrophic damage than the smaller rounds and better permanent wound cavity regardless of expansion. But, that's my own personal preference. Do I carry smaller calibers .... of course. Like I said any gun is better than none.
That's the ideal but the problem is as soon as the firefight starts you get get a massive infusion of adrenaline and your pupils dilate and you can't even see the sights on your gun because of the reduced depth of field.
Well trained teams on a mission can temper that, but you have to be a very cool customer to go from chasing a mall shoplifter to fighting for your life in a matter of seconds, particularly after you've been hit.
Most cops involved in shootings have no idea how many rounds they fired until either the slide locks back or they pull the mag and count. In the latter case they usually underestimate by a factor of two to three.
It takes nearly daily training to prepare for situations like that, and most cops don't get that opportunity.
RR
Stopping power by Caliber - hm2 clark - 09-27-2011
Does anyone know how much data Mr Ellfritz used from WWI? As I remember, Alvin York got his medal from his use of a .45, not an 06. One would think more data would be available for the .45 and 9mm. Not just hand guns but lots and lots of submachine guns in those calibers. WWII on 3 fronts, Korea, Vietnam and lots in between should have yealded a virtual universe of data on stopping power. I have talked to a number of guys who went into viet kong tunnels with .45s and were quite impressed by its stopping power, were any on those in the study? To put another way, in the last 100 years I'll bet well over a million people were shot in anger with these weapons and here we are trying to draw sweeping conclusions on stopping power by examning a very small fraction of the data.
Stopping power by Caliber - LRRPF52 - 09-27-2011
Your question is basically: Do we have a scientific baseline for wound ballistics from the collective real-world results over the last century of warfare? The answer is...Nope. There are no units in the military that collect enemy bodies, and process them through a detailed forensic analysis on a regular basis, to include tracing the wound tracks, retrieving the projectiles, and making conclusions that will be of use to ballisticians. Something about battlefield priorities creates an environment where there are still tens of thousands of soldiers probably unaccounted for, who likely were buried in their trenches for expediency-just the reality of the nature of war.
I have friends that go and dig for war remains and materials from the Second World War, and the field is ripe for the reaper. The only semi-useful studies are fragmented, and mostly exist from shootings in the US, where there are actual forensic pathologies involved. I have yet to see someone gather the various independent studies and try to correlate them in a manner that will be of value to the armed citizen.
In the meantime, I will continue to train to put as many rounds into a threat as fast and as violently as possible, in as many worst-case scenarios as I can craft after reviewing the real-world experiences of those who have survived them, in addition to my own. While there are certain groups that frequently use small arms to effectively dispatch bad guys, and have been doing so for a few decades, we'll never see their ballistics results, and I don't think we need to because they would emphasize training over the tools anyway.
Stopping power by Caliber - bwaites - 09-27-2011
Mr. Ellifritz data was all current, last 10-20 years or so. No wartime data was used as I undestand it. This was civilian and LEO shootings only.