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+--- Thread: Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? (/showthread.php?tid=23078)
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Razorback - 03-15-2021
Interesting article that makes a ton of sense if looked at rationally! It boggles the mind to think all of the ammunition short falls are from hoarding and not other ulterior and nefarious, motives...or does it?
https://blog.thebestshootingsite.com/2021/02/19/is-the-ammunition-shortage-real-or-manufactured/
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Double Naught Spy - 03-15-2021
Conspiracy theory? Ha! And the reason for other gun-related shortages?
I liked the conspiracy theory that the US military was buying up all the ammo. That was a good one, too.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - grayfox - 03-15-2021
I suppose that might be one theory. But whether it stands up - rationally - to real economics I don't know.
In supply/demand - supply depression, vs total revenue, has anyone evaluated whether depressing this mkt so much (as alleged) really increases their revenue? If supply is restricted artificially low so that, even if prices went up, the total revenue is less than a larger supply... well the bean counters would have the say over the "revengers" of any bidding war.
By cutting out a large portion of the buying, ie the selling of their product, that lost revenue I would think (emphasis on "think" as not analyzed yet) outweighs the increased $$/primer they would be getting. IMO lots of people are not buying the $$100s of $$ per kilo primer, as even at those prices I don't see lots of inventory coming to the shelves. True it's disappearing when it shows up, but that would be the case if only 10-15 cases show up... vs hundreds of cases being there and going for a more normal price.
So I think the jury is still out on this theory.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - StoneHendge - 03-15-2021
Vista's inventories have continued to decline over the past year. Anyone can go see for themselves: https://investors.vistaoutdoor.com/sec-filings/default.aspx
Given increased raw materials prices, those inventories are actually likely even lower in terms of units given the amount of lead and copper they contain.
So if the are secret warehouses full of primers, the company is likely engaging in securities fraud.
Not to mention that what the article claims Vista is doing would violate Anti Trust laws.
DNS, at least the IRS isn't buying up all the ammo anymore. I guess their warehouses are still full.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - grayfox - 03-15-2021
Nor DHS, now that Tyranni-politano is gone...Lol!!!
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - hill37 - 03-15-2021
The way they are made no wonder they are hard to find.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - keystone183 - 03-15-2021
Razorback Wrote:that makes a ton of sense if looked at rationally!
No. It doesn't.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - 204 AR - 03-15-2021
So I read that, and it doesn't make sense to me that Federal and Winchester would have primers stockpiled when there is a secondary market (us) they could sell to. They'd still accomplish their goal of starving the small guy, and still be selling excess primers. What's their end goal with all these primers they have sitting around?
Nope, not buying it.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Red*Lion - 03-15-2021
I think that it is huge demand and people hording.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Lemonaid - 03-15-2021
If by withholding a one cent primer from going to market they make their ten cent ammo sell for fifteen cents, it makes a lot of cents!
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - dammitman - 03-15-2021
i found ammo at walmart,,,,,,its a trick
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - lazyengineer - 03-16-2021
So....I guess the cardboard tube cartel was responsible for the Toilet Paper shortage during COVID?
As it turns out, when your market increases by several percentage points in size, combined with a massive increase in consumption demand for hording due to nation-wide tolerated riots that are racist'ly blaming you for the worlds ills; in a world of just-in-time delivery; you run out.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Lemonaid - 03-16-2021
Lazy, the T.P. shortage was due to all the crap we had to deal with!
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - PVBoom - 03-16-2021
No, that was a stupid article that made some hideous conclusions, like the part about lack of practice causing more accidents and bad press.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Razorback - 03-16-2021
I find that a company with a BILLION DOLLARS of Back Log on Orders & Record-Breaking Profits cannot meet demand while toilet tissue companies can is absolutely missing the plot! What you are seeing here if you put the effort into it is an economic battle on who is going to control for the time being the ammunition supply! It is PURELY ECONOMICS on who can corner this market!
The notion that Vista outdoors or Olin / Winchester, is this inept in warehousing, modernization and expansion, could be true look at Remington. But if the case is that they are inept, how are they this bad at what they do and still have record breaking profits unlike Remington?? https://www.alloutdoor.com/2020/11/16/vista-outdoor-billion-profits/
Is the record breaking profits due to them holding back orders on a BILLION dollars they are already made without having to fulfil other orders especially to other ammunition manufacturers? If it did wouldn't the be the story instead of hoarding or they haven't modernized since 1993?
Would it not make sense to put their competitors in the ammo business, out of business? How would a BILLION dollars help in procuring resources even more cheaply than they procured them in the past? Can their be a WAR between Vista and Olin/Winchester? Olin / Winchester, not only sells bullets, brass ammo, powder and primers, but also owns the mines for their products? Seems for DECADES there has been an ongoing battle between Vista and Winchester to get military contracts would it not help Vista to be in the position of buying up cheap resources like Olin / Winchester does, to get bids to by low balling their offers? bhttps://military.wikia.org/wiki/Olin_Corporation
The case for raw materials makes little sense, for instance, 90% of lead is procured by battery makers are batteries priced 10x's more than they are worth, are their battery shortages? Does Apple and LG, have trouble making phones due to the lead shortage? The top 3 purchasers of brass are the automotive, music and the meatal working industries. Are Cars, trumpets and door knobs impossible to buy or in short supply? Never mind other ingredients that comprise smokeless powders and primers that are also available in other manufacturing items such as soap, paint and thermometers, etc.! The argument should not be they are hard to get but who can get them cheaper!
In the real world having been shorted a BILLION dollars worth of supply in the largest buying trend ever would have had C.E.O.'s, heads rolling because even warehousing a 1/3 of your product would mean $333 million more dollars in your account! It makes no sense other that they are holding back or slowing their production down on purpose. It makes great business sense!
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - grayfox - 03-16-2021
I still seriously doubt that report. Now VSTO, Vista Outdoors, is a publicly traded company so there is plenty of financials and analysts reports to read through...
I'm looking now at some of the VSTO SEC filings and analyst reports, there's still more detail for me to look at, but off the top I see no increase in on-hand inventories and no huge costs, profits or otherwise, through the 2020 annual and the latest 10-Q. There is a lot of variability in their financial performance, and they are middle of the pack/slightly below mid level as far as financial performance in the leisure industry. Their market cap is not especially high.
Overall several analysts do have a buy or equivalent recommendation but there is nothing that I see so far that would indicate any hoarding, sitting on inventories or big market plays to sink other competing firms or whatever. If someone wants to remove their competition they usually try to flood the market with their own goods at lower than normal prices (think "gas wars" of the past, or China undercutting American firms) -- they don't hoard their own materials. And that usually means they take losses for a while, hoping the competition cannot stay in the game. And such behavior (hoarding) would make their inventories and costs both go way up but revenues go way down... and analysts typically find those things out and talk about them.
So.... where is the financial analysis that proves the article's points? Perhaps OP has done the analysis and could enlighten us?
I personally don't believe any statements of "a billion $$ in backlog" unless they are willing to say that under oath to the SEC. Otherwise, just water-cooler brag.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - LR1955 - 03-16-2021
I am always amazed at what people believe and this article is one of them. This guy makes claims without any sort of evidence. Saying he heard it from a friend 'in the industry' isn't evidence. So he comes up with another conspiracy theory -- that the big boys are starving smaller companies out of business so they can claim that market. What small ammo company has gone out of business? I didn't see any listed. You would think that if a company was starved out of business because they couldn't get primers that their CEO or President would be saying something and would probably be suing Vista right now. Nothing I know of. Anyone out there know of an ammo manufacturer who has gone out of business because Vista Corp withheld primers from them?
Also, I haven't seen Wolf or CHICOM ammo or components since this all started. Imported ammo and components was probably half the market because they were so cheap. Imports stopped when Covid started and all of that demand was shifted on to US firms. Remington goes out of business and more demand is placed on fewer companies. So I believe the supply and demand side.
Nope -- I don't believe anyone in the ammo business saw this coming. And they would be morons to invest millions in capital goods with all three branches of government gun haters. And in five years, if we survive the leftists in charge now, I imagine the demand for primers and ammo will be not much different than today.
Do I trust the guys running these places to tell me the truth? Not on your life. I have never seen such a disaster in terms of public relations between these companies and the majority of the long term shooting community. They are totally incompetent when it comes to communicating with those who keep them afloat for the long term. The guys who support them long term are the handloaders and competitive shooters, most who handload unless sponsored. I won't forget how we are being treated by these places.
LR55
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - StoneHendge - 03-16-2021
LR1955 Wrote:I am always amazed at what people believe and this article is one of them. This guy makes claims without any sort of evidence. Saying he heard it from a friend 'in the industry' isn't evidence. So he comes up with another conspiracy theory.
LR55
You just described the MSM!
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - lazyengineer - 03-16-2021
LR1955 Wrote:I am always amazed at what people believe and this article is one of them. This guy makes claims without any sort of evidence. ....
LR55
Yep. The challenge with a conspiracy theory is they are impossible to disprove. You can't prove a negative, only a positive. Any attempts to discredit a conspiracy, only reveal the depth of how entrenched the consiracy reaalllly is. All while everyone forgets to put the burden-of-proof on the one propposing the conspiracy theory.
As to primers vs toilet paper; obviously we've all been through this. But the reality is it's a bad risk-investment to build a primer plant during a shortage. That's a heavily regulated hazard / dangerous good explosive product, that is subject to severe market fluctuations. The market flucuates, and that's a great way to have a 10-digit (or bigger) investment facility come on line, and immediatly be idled. Sure, run the crews 24/7 and invest in a little bit of debottlenecking now; but beyond that... I'd take a dim view if I was on the Board of Directors.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - hill37 - 03-16-2021
I wonder if Razorback is a fan of the football team by that name? They do get delusional some times. Wolves up!