Mass Shooting Audit: When police stop them, 14 die. When civilians stop them, 3 die.

[melensdad]

Here is an interesting, but amateur study of actual shootings. 29 shootings were studied, all were published, all the data is publicly available. Interesting study, I'm curious to see if any of the anti-gun groups can pick it apart. I'm not saying this is complete, accurate or comprehensive. As I say, it will be interesting to see if his 'study' can be undone.

SOURCE LINK => http://dailyanarchist.com/2012/07/31...ge-statistics/

Auditing Shooting Rampage Statistics
July 31st, 2012 Submitted by Davi Barker

• The average number of people killed in mass shootings when stopped by police is 14.3
  
• The average number of people killed in a mass shooting when stopped by a civilian is 2.3.

Step One: Amassing a data set

I searched for timelines of shootings and selected 5 that appeared the most comprehensive.

• Info Please
• CNN
• Denver Post
• News Max
• TruTV

Step Two: Trimming irrelevant data.

Continued in next POST BELOW

[melensdad]

Continued from above:

Step Three: The List

I divided the remaining cases into two categories, those stopped by police and those stopped by civilians. I included both armed and unarmed civilians for reasons that will become clear in the final analysis. I also removed one final case from the list. Dominick Maldonado went on a shooting rampage in a shopping mall in Tacoma, Washington, and although he ultimately surrendered to police he was confronted by two legally armed civilians who interrupted his shooting, but did not fire for fear of hitting innocent bystanders. So, I’m calling this one an assist from the civilians and taking it out of the analysis as an anomaly.

• 9/6/1949 - Howard Barton Unruh went on a shooting rampage in Camden, New Jersey with a German Luger. He shot up a barber shop, a pharmacy and a tailor’s shop killing 13 people. He finally surrendered after a shoot-out with police.
• 8/1/1966 - Charles Joseph Whitman climbed a tower at the University of Texas in Austin, Texas and began shooting at other students and faculty with a sniper rifle. He killed 16 people before being shot and killed by police.
• 7/18/1984 – James Oliver Huberty shot up a McDonalds in San Ysidro, California killing 21 people before police shoot and killed him.
• 10/16/1991 - George Hennard entered Luby’s Cafeteria in Killeen, Texas and began indiscriminately shooting the patrons. He killed 23 people in all. He commit suicide after being cornered and wounded in a shootout with police.
• 11/15/1995 – Jamie Rouse used a .22-caliber semi-automatic rifle to fire indiscriminately inside Richland High School in Lynnville, Tennessee. He killed 2 people before being tackled by a football player and a coach.
• 2/2/1996 - Barry Loukaitis entered Frontier Middle School in Moses Lake, Washington with a rifle and two handguns. He killed 3 people before the Gym teacher, Jon Lane grabbed the rifle and wrestled the gunman to the ground.
• 10/1/1997 - Luke Woodham put on a trench coat to conceal a hunting rifle and entered Pearl High School in Pearl, Mississippi. He killed 3 students before vice principal Joel Myrick apprehended him with a Colt .45 without firing.
• 12/1/1997 - Michael Carneal brought a pistol, two rifles and two shotguns to his high school in Paducah, Kentucky and opened fire on a small prayer group killing 3 girls. His rampage was halted when he was tackled by another student.
• 4/24/1998 - Andrew Wurst attended a middle school dance in Edinboro, Pennsylvania intent on killing a bully but shot wildly into the crowd. He killed 1 student. James Strand lived next door. When he heard the shots he ran over with his 12 gauge shotgun and apprehended the gunman without firing.
• 5/21/1998 - Kipland Kinkel entered Thurston High School in Springfield, Oregon with two pistols and a semi-automatic rifle hidden under a trench coat. He opened fire killing 2 students, but while reloading a wounded student named Jacob Ryker tackled him.
• 4/20/1999 - Dylan Klebold and Eric Harris were the killers behind the Columbine shooting in Littleton, Colorado. The two both commit suicide after police arrived, but what many people do not know is that the school’s armed security guard and the police all stood and waited outside the library while executions happed right inside. 15 people died, not including the shooters.
• 7/31/1999 - Mark Barton was a daytrader who went on a shooting rampage through two day trading firms in Atlanta, Georgia. He killed 12 people in all and after a police chase he was surrounded by police at a gas station where he commit suicide.
• 1/16/2002 – Peter Odighizuwa opened fire with a handgun at The Appalachian School in Grundy, Virginia. 3 people were killed before the shooter was apprehended by 3 students, Mikael Gross, Ted Besen, and Tracy Bridges with handguns without firing.
• 8/27/2003 – Salvador Tapia entered an auto parts store in Chicago, Illinois and shot and killed 6 people with a handgun. He then waged a gunbattle with police before a SWAT team fatally wounded him.
• 9/24/2003 – John Jason McLaughlin brought a .22-caliber pistol to Rocori High School in Cold Spring, Minnesota. He killed 2 people before PE teacher, Mark Johnson confronted him, disarmed him, and held him in the school office for police to arrive.
• 2/25/2005 – David Hernandez Arroyo Sr. opened fire on a public square from the steps of a courthouse in Tyler, Texas. The shooter was armed with an assault rifle and wearing body armor. Mark Wilson fired back with a handgun, hitting the shooter but not penetrating the armor. Mark drew the shooter’s fire, and ultimately drove him off, but was fatally wounded. Mark was the only death in this incident.
• 3/21/2005 – Jeff Weise was a student at Red Lake High School in Red Lake, Minnesota. He killed 7 people including a teacher and a security guard. When police cornered him inside the school, he shot and killed himself.
• 11/8/2005 – Kenneth Bartley, Jr. brought a .22 caliber pistol to Campbell County Comprehensive High School in Jacksboro, Tennessee and killed 1 person before being disarmed by a teacher.
• 9/29/2006 – Eric Hainstock brought a .22 caliber revolver and a 20-gauge shotgun into Weston High School in Cazenovia, Wisconson. He killed 1 person before staff and students apprehended him and held him until the police arrived.
• 4/16/2007 – Seung-Hui Cho was the shooter behind the Virgina Tech shooting in Blacksburg, Virginia. Police apprehend the wrong suspect allowing the shooter to walk across campus and open fire again in a second location. He eventually commit suicide after murdering 32 people.
• 9/3/2008 – Isaac Zamora went on a shooting rampage in Alger, Washington that killed 6 people, including a motorist shot during a high speed chase with police. He eventually surrendered to police.
• 3/29/2009 – Robert Stewart went on a killing rampage armed with a rifle, and a shotgun in a nursing home in Carthage, North Carolina. He killed 8 people and was apprehended after a shootout with police.
• 4/3/2009 – Jiverly Wong went on a shooting rampage at a American Civic Association immigration center in Binghamton, New York where he was enrolled in a citizenship class. 13 people were killed before the shooter killed himself. Witnesses say he turned the gun on himself as soon as he heard police sirens approaching.
• 11/5/2009 – Nidal Malik Hasan was the shooter behind the Fort Hood shooting at a military base just outside Killeen, Texas. The shooter entered the Soldier Readiness Processing Center, where personnel are disarmed, armed with a laser sighted pistol and a Smith & Wesson revolver. He killed 13 people before he was shot by a Civilian Police officer.
• 2/12/2010 – Amy Bishop went on a shooting rampage in classroom at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, Alabama. She killed 3 people before the Dean of the University, Debra Moriarity pushed the her out of the room and blockaded the door. She was arrested later.
• 1/8/2011 – Jared Lee Loughner is charged with the shooting in Tucson, Arizona that killed 6 people, including Chief U.S. District Court Judge John Roll. He was stopped when he was tackled by two civilians.
• 2/27/2012 – T.J. Lane entered Chardon High School in Chardon, Ohio with a handgun and started shooting. 3 students died. The shooter was chased out of the building by a teacher and apprehended by police later.
• 4/22/2012 – Kiarron Parker opened fire in a church parking lot in Aurora, Colorado. The shooter killed 1 person before being shot and killed by a member of the congregation who was carrying concealed.
• 7/20/2012 – James Holmes went into a crowded movie theater in Aurora, Colorado and opens fire with an AR-15 semi-automatic assault rifle. 12 people were killed, before the shooter surrendered to police.

Step Four: Final analysis

With 14 incidents stopped by police with a total of 200 dead that’s an average of about 14.3. With 15 incidents stopped by civilians and 35 dead that’s an average of 2.3.

The first point I want to draw your attention to is that roughly half of shooting rampages end in suicide anyway. What that means is that police are not even in a position to stop most of them. Only the civilians present at the time of the shooting have any opportunity to stop those shooters. That’s probably more important than the statistic itself. In a shooting rampage, counting on the police to intervene at all is a coin flip at best.

Second, within the civilian category 10 of the 15 shootings were stopped by unarmed civilians. What’s amazing about that is that whether armed or not, when a civilian plays hero it seems to save a lot of lives. The courthouse shooting in Tyler, Texas was the only incident where the heroic civilian was killed. In that incident the hero was armed with a handgun and the villain was armed with an assault rifle and body armor. If you compare the average of people killed in shootings stopped by armed civilians and unarmed civilians you get 1.8 and 2.6, but that’s not nearly as significant as the difference between a proactive civilian, and a cowering civilian who waits for police.

So, given that far less people die in rampage shootings stopped by a proactive civilian, only civilians have any opportunity to stop rampage shootings in roughly half of incidents, and armed civilians do better on average than unarmed civilians, wouldn’t you want those heroic individuals who risk their lives to save others to have every tool available at their disposal?

None of this is to imply the police are not doing their job. Only to imply they are not on the scene in time to actually stop the shooters. When civilians, at the scene, get involved then the problem is stopped short of a major event.

[Northwind]

Thanks for sharing that... i am reading it in parts so i can digest...

AS FOR THE "ANTI'S" they have already made up their minds.... just hope it would sway the fence riders, and reasonable minded

[melensdad]

Thanks for sharing that... i am reading it in parts so i can digest...

AS FOR THE "ANTI'S" they have already made up their minds.... just hope it would sway the fence riders, and reasonable minded

Well I sent this to some "fence riders" and the replies I got were actually pretty positive. But these particular "fence riders" are people who know that I carry a gun on a daily basis.



It will be interesting to see...

• IF the anti-gun crowd can de-bunk this 'study'
• IF the 'study' withstands statistical analysis
• IF the pro-gun community can promote this 'study' and reinforce its data points
• IF this gets any traction in any media (pro-gun, mainstream, etc) and how the police, etc respond.

I'd also point out that nothing in the study is intended to be an insult or slap at our law enforcement officers. Its simply a matter of timing. A person on the scene can react NOW, but an officer en-route in his car can not react until after he arrives. Even if he gets there in 60 to 90 seconds the shooter can inflict many more murders during that time span.

[LRRPF52]

The American experiment isn't a guarantee that you'll live in utopia, or live a peaceful life free of sorrow. It is a minimal government experiment that has proven to be the most free society on earth, where millions have flocked to escape tyranny. Having the ability to protect one's life, family, and property is central to this environment, nuts with guns included.

In other countries, the nuts with guns ARE the government, so I'll enjoy my freedom, thank you. People that wake up in the morning and assume that they have a right to enjoy a day free of conflict, with a certain expectation of total safety, but without working to preserve that safety themselves, are living in a fantasy. If you walk into a theater with a sign indicating that law-abiding people will be unarmed, you just walked into a maniac's dream kill zone. It isn't anybody's fault, but a risk you take with your life, just like the Founders took a risk with theirs by sacrificing everything and revolting against tyranny, only they insisted that owning and bearing arms be a fundamental tenet of our precious Republic...if we can keep it.

Excellent article, OP. Thanks for sharing!

[rickOshay]

I guess the ANTIS will focus on the data that shows the unarmed civilian response was effective, therefore you don't need guns.

Unfortunately, our culture and our gun laws prevent more people from carrying firearms. I think the data would be skewed even further toward lives saved if MORE people were armed.

Maybe we should all do this .......
Sign.jpg

[melensdad]

I guess the ANTIS will focus on the data that shows the unarmed civilian response was effective, therefore you don't need guns. . .

We can always follow up with the studies by Dr John Lott showing that there are roughly 2,000,000 successful self defenses per year using guns, rarely involving a gunshot. Heck I detailed one of those events on this forum when I relayed the story about my real estate/business partner who held a burglar at gunpoint this week until the police showed up.

[Northwind]

Ha ha i wonder how well old stinky pants was received at the Jail.... i still get a chuckle whenever i tell that story....

yes i have often told people the police are actually there to gather the evidence. most violent crimes of passion happen fast and are done.
But in the case of the Mass shooting where it is a kill as long as you can until you are forced to stop, it takes time for :
A) people to realize whats happening
B)finally call 911.... and how long does that take... i know when i had to call in a life or death emergency at work one time it was quite the interview process just to get an ambulance dispatched.
C) then the officers get the call and react and have to navigate through who knows what kind of traffic and all the while time is ticking away... the goblin that is creating his chaos is free ranging on innocent defenseless people. and that is truly where people who are capable and able to repel them or stop them will step in and do what they can...

I am glad to see the information laid out clearly and supporting what i have always felt to be true.

I almost shot my TV when the press was droning on a 24 hour obsession after the batman shooting in Colo. and they had Michael Moore on grrrrrrrrrrr

on the timeline there is a missing one, on 2/19 1997 a boy entered a high school here in my town and shot the principal and a student, one of my friends a teacher there was aimed at with the 12 guage shotgun and told him to put it down, he did. could have been a lot worse... stopped him unarmed.

again thanks for sharing that info.